In:Security in Eastern Europe

Armenia is struggling with Russian interference and the resulting divisions within society. It has been more affected than other countries by Russia’s loss of regulatory power in the region. The current threat to the country’s democratic consolidation process and the stagnating normalisation process in its relations with Azerbaijan do not contribute to an enhanced perception of security either. 

Georgian society is affected by anxiety. It seeks to gain from but at the same time fears the consequences of an influx of Russian migrants. There is the worry not only that Russia will drive a wedge into Georgian society from the outside, but also that Georgia’s democratic governance will be eroded from the inside.

Historical memory determines the Finnish population’s altered perception of security since February 2022. Finland’s policy towards Russia has changed from a neutral-pragmatic to an explicitly defensive-oriented one, driven by the population’s desire for more security and certainty. This yielded in in the country’s decision to join NATO and eventually complete border closures.

The Polish case illustrates the paradigmatic changes in Polish defence since 2014, placing particular emphasis on the process of “remaking defence from below” through paramilitary civil society groups. 

Russia’s war against Ukraine has also further divided the Belarusian society. Although sympathies towards Russia remain, the overwhelming majority of the population is against a direct participation by Belarus in the war. The gap between the authorities and public sentiment has widened as repressions continues since the political crisis of 2020. Threats to societal security are aggravated by the ongoing militarisation of the Belarusian state (stationing of Russian troops and service provider) and the instrumentalization of migration.

Ukraine is at the centre of the Russian war of aggression. Based on the Ukrainian experience, the Russian logic of ‘a weaponisation of everything’ – an extension of war to non-military resources, such as energy, food and the environment – has not only created unprecedented chains of insecurity but also led the Ukrainian society becoming more robust and resilient.

The Moldovan society has been disproportionately affected by the Russian war, especially in terms of social and economic consequences. While their security situation is not comparable to Ukraine, many security risks are imminent and a constant burden for a society that has already had to shoulder longstanding insecurities emanating from a lack of societal cohesion and unity. Societal divisions have deepened, and the polarisation has made the society vulnerable to external interference.

The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has had severe implications for security perceptions, discourses and internal societal dynamics, in particular in countries in the Russian Federation’s immediate vicinity. Viewed in terms of the ‘ontology of security’, the invasion was a paradigmatic rupture for the entire region, which as well as reinforcing longstanding fears, has given rise to new threats and insecurities.

When evaluating the security of countries in Russia’s neighbourhood, policymakers and scholars primarily look at top-down state actions. A new report focuses on security ‘from below’ and finds that societal cohesion is crucial for security in the region. The KonKoop In:Security Report deals with seven countries in three overarching chapters. In their analysis of how each country reacted to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 in terms of their security policies, the authors find considerable variation across the country cases and show how the different discourses and perceptions of security are rooted in the respective histories of these states. While some societies, like Moldova and Armenia, have become more polarised since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, others, like Finland and Poland, have become more united in face of the new threat situation.

Click to read the In:Security Report Series 1/2024 at KonKoop webpage.

Moldova’s struggle of emancipating itself from the dependence on network-bound gas and electricity supplies from Russia has been characterised by the issues of affordability and accessibility. This dependency has been mitigated since Moldova has now physical access to alternative sources of energy from the European market. 

In the context of an existential risk in Ukraine, the availability of energy, in particular electricity, has outweighed all other dimensions of security. The Ukrainian case shows that energy security should be reprioritised and redefined to take account of the needs of society and local communities in times of conflict and war.

In Latvia heightened perceptions of energy insecurity have increased the risk of compromising environmental sustainability/acceptability. The Russian war against Ukraine has accelerated debates and decisions related to energy security (decoupling of the BRELL network). The energy topic is also instrumentalised to destabilise society through the spread of disinformation by Kremlin loyal forces.  

Russia’s war against Ukraine exposed the vulnerabilities that come with energy dependence on Russia. For states across Europe, the need to decouple from the Russian energy system was clear. This decoupling process has been especially challenging for Eastern European countries so embedded in Russia’s energy infrastructure. This KonKoop In:Security Report looks at how three Eastern European countries have gone about severing their energy ties to Russia. Moving eastwards from the protection of the European energy umbrella in Latvia to peripheral Moldova and wartime Ukraine, we can see how energy security becomes more precarious. In all three countries energy geopolitics is intertwined with the perceptions and fears of ordinary consumers.

Click to read the In:Security Report Series 2/2024 at KonKoop webpage.

From a feminist perspective, multiple war-induced insecurities have reinforced, as part of Russia’s (ideological) warfare, the global normalisation of anti-gender radicalism. Thus, gender has become a central battlefield between an increasingly illiberal gender order in Russia, and the Ukrainian experience of an emancipatory and liberalising trend with regard to gender discourses.

Post-colonial and decolonial discourses have gained momentum in Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian military invasion. While at the official level, decolonisation takes the form of nationalisation, at the grassroots level it is a means of liberation, self-empowerment and adaptation to radical insecurity. Thus, decoloniality has turned into an ongoing process of resistance and a condition for Ukraine’s victory in the war.

The effects of the war on human and environmental security in Ukraine is often overlooked in discourses on the war. The damages on landscapes and ecosystems draws attention to the difficulties of post-war reconstruction, notably for the conversion of post-war ecosystems, such as the Kakhovka Reservoir and Velikyi Luh.

In the context of societal responses to the war and the strengthening of societal cohesion in a society under occupation resilience plays an important role. Recent survey data among the Ukrainian civilian population and military personnel provides insights into the well-being of the most vulnerable social-demographic groups in Ukraine, which have had to cope with increased levels of stress and insecurity. The war prompted a remarkable surge in cohesion, which is interrelated with resilience. A resilient society is more likely to sustain cohesion, but weak cohesion can make it harder to stay resilient.

Russia’s war of aggression has not only caused appalling atrocities and terrible destruction in Ukraine; it has also set back societal progress and security in various domains, including gender and social equality, historical justice and self-perception, societal cohesion and environmental protection. These dimensions of in:security have been widely overlooked in ongoing discourses with their emphasis on hard security issues.

The present report summarises the results of the third In:Security Workshop held online on 16 October 2024 on ‘Emancipatory Dimensions of In:Security’ as part of KonKoop’s topic line ‘In:Security’. The topic line investigates how security is perceived, experienced and enacted by ordinary citizens and how ‘societal security’ in Europe has transformed in the context of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The workshop was dedicated to the feminist, post-/de-colonial, ecological and societal dimensions of security and insecurity. Participants focused mainly on the Ukrainian case, but also drew comparisons to the situation in wider Eastern Europe. The purpose of the workshop was to pool expertise and enhance interdisciplinary exchange among the participants. This report is based on the exploratory research presented at the workshop by experts from Ukraine and the Czech Republic who then elaborated on the overarching question of how in:security has evolved and partly led to emancipatory/liberating attitudes and effects.

Click to read the In:Security Report Series 1/2025 at KonKoop webpage.

The current situation of in:security in the Republic of Moldova is determined by several factors, among them the situation in the Russian-influenced breakaway region of Transnistria, the implications of former energy dependencies, political corruption and democratic backsliding, as well as societal polarisation and external interference by Russia via disinformation. The decision to enter the EU accession process remains Moldova’s most important security asset and ticket to becoming part of an emerging European security architecture.

Ukrainian perspective(s) on the war and the future of European security dispel any illusions about a quick peace.  Instead, reliance on military and economic strength, deterrence, security guarantees from outside powers, and accountability for war crimes and justice should guarantee a sustainable peace. Ukraine should be a key actor and asset in any new European security context.

The text focuses on public attitudes towards Russia’s war in Ukraine and European security in Ukraine and Russia. Opinion data from both countries are the basis for an analysis of the convergences and divergences in Ukrainian and Russian public opinion on perceptions of victory and acceptable concessions.

Poland as a frontline state plays a pivotal role in any possible future European security arrangements. Therefore, the country is currently redefining its role within the European and global security framework, with Polish stability depending on a strong military, allied cooperation and economic independence.  

This contributions illustrates what is needed to construct a new and more stable European security order by sketching the most obvious preconditions. Among them is the need to preserve diplomatic channels with Russia open in order to avoid unintended incidents and escalation. The ‘Peace Matrix’ as a heuristic tool entails a ‘sequenced pathway’ to eventually achieving peace in Ukraine. 

The external threat emanating from Russia has eroded the sense of certainty and predictability that individuals and states need to feel safe and secure in their identity – a phenomenon captured by the term ‘ontological security’. The fourth and final KonKoop In:Security report focuses on this dimension of security with case studies from three of the most war-affected countries: Ukraine, Moldova and Poland. In Europe’s currently fragmented security architecture, the inherent security interests of the states caught between NATO and Russia have been oversimplified and partly disregarded. The authors of the report argue that in the shift to a more functional European security order, greater consideration must be given to the security perceptions and needs of these societies. 

The report summarises the results of the workshop on ‘Vision(s) of Post-war European Security’ held at ZOiS on 22 January 2025 as part of KonKoop’s In:Security topic line The topic line aims to question state-centric notions of security and insecurity in times of war and conflict. The workshop was an endeavour to brainstorm about different perspectives on European security by scrutinising how decisions on the European/geopolitical level resonate on the ground. Participants emphasised the regional and local levels, with a focus on security perceptions and visions from below and in between. 

Click to read the In:Security Report Series 2/2025 at KonKoop webpage.